Last night's Rangers game was a see-saw battle that delivered ten lead changes or ties over the course of the ten-inning game. One such moment was in the 7th inning, when Kyle Blanks came up with runners at first and third base, and delivered a check-swing bloop RBI single to tie the game at 5-5. Rangers' manager Jeff Banister then opted to pinch-run Leonys Martin for Blanks at first base, which ended up being a decision that would have ramifications later in the game.
This was a questionable decision at the time that only got worse. Blanks has been one of the Rangers' best hitters, Martin was sitting out this game to rest a sore wrist, and it was a tie game in the 7th inning. There was a reasonable chance that this spot in the order would come up again during this game, and that's what happened.
In the 10th inning, with the Rangers down by one run, Carlos Corporan pinch-hit for the wounded Martin, and was promptly set down on strikes by Royals' closer Greg Holland. Holland easily dispatched of the next two Rangers' batters as well, sealing the Kansas City win in extra innings.
What was the best-case scenario for pinch-running for Blanks in that situation? Hypothetically, if the next hitter, Carlos Peguero, had doubled, it would have given Martin a better chance of scoring from first base than Blanks. But Adrian Beltre would have already scored from third base on that double, making the run that Martin theoretically would have scored less important. On the other hand, by pinch-running for the DH Blanks, if his spot in the order came up again, that would guarantee pinch-hitting for Martin with one of your worst hitters, simultaneously burning up nearly all bench options.
This wasn't the first time this season that Banister has made a pinch-running decision that is either aggressive or highly questionable. It also wasn't the first time that he has removed one of his hitters early enough in the game that the pinch-runner was called upon to take an at-bat later on.
Jeff Banister has utilized a pinch runner 13 times so far this season. Of those 13 times:
- The Rangers were trailing nine times, tied three times, and leading once
- Three times the pinch runner came around to score
- One time the pinch runner scoring directly impacted the outcome of the game
- Five times the pinch runner was substituted in at first base with runner(s) ahead of him
- Five times the score was greater than one run apart
- Seven pinch runners in the 9th inning; three in the 8th inning; three in the 7th inning
- Three times the pinch runner's spot in the order came up to bat again in the game
Banister's reputation, and a reason he got the job as Texas manager, is one of balancing data-supported information with good baseball acumen to make decisions. It appears that one of those two things is telling him that aggressive pinch-running is a good practice. In my opinion, it's not working out.
This is not merely results-based second-guessing. The upside of a pinch-runner is fairly minimal compared to the downside of one of your worst hitters having to take an at-bat in place of one of your best hitters in a late-and-close situation. And three times out of thirteen, that has ended up happening with Texas pinch runners.
There may be something to be said for keeping players at the end of your bench engaged by finding situations like pinch-running to insert them into a game. That helps break up the monotony for those guys and may pay dividends when they are called upon to get into the game. But even with that caveat, I don't understand pinch-running for the runner at first base when there are runner(s) ahead of him, and I don't understand pinch-running in the 7th inning of a tie game, when extra innings are a more distinct possibility than usual. Last night, Banister did both.
Banister is a new manager, and I imagine the learning curve for new managers is steep. The hope is that moments like what happened last night will be a mistake to learn from for Banister. The only other hope is that he does have data to support his decisions, and his strategy will pay off over the long haul. Without a change in the process, or a change in the results, this kind of pinch-running utilization will be a source of frustration for Rangers' fans who have dealt with more than their fair share in recent history.
***
The full log of the Rangers' pinch runner usage can be seen below:
April 10th: 9th inning, Rangers trailing 5-1, pinch run Adam Rosales for Prince Fielder at 2nd base, no other runners on; Rosales advanced to third base and was stranded.
April 11th: 7th inning, Rangers trailing 5-2, pinch run Delino DeShields for Mitch Moreland at 1st base, no other runners on; DeShields stole second base and was stranded.
April 13th: 8th inning, Rangers trailing 5-3, pinch run Delino DeShields for Prince Fielder at 1st base, no other runners on; DeShields advanced to second base on errant pickoff throw and was stranded.
April 24th: 9th inning, Rangers trailing 3-2, pinch run Delino DeShields for Adrian Beltre at 1st base, no other runners on; DeShields stole second base and advanced to third base on throw, then stranded.
April 24th: 9th inning, Rangers trailing 3-2, pinch run Adam Rosales for Shin-Soo Choo at 1st base with runner on third base; Rosales stranded at 1st base.
April 26th: 9th inning, Rangers trailing 3-2, pinch run Delino DeShields for Prince Fielder at 1st base, no other runners on; DeShields advanced and scored on two base hits. DeShields came up to bat in the 11th inning and struck out.
April 26th: 9th inning, Rangers trailing 3-2, pinch run Adam Rosales for Adrian Beltre at 1st base with runner on second base; Rosales advanced to second base and was stranded. Rosales came up to bat in the 11th inning and drew a walk.
May 1st: 7th inning, Rangers ahead 3-0, pinch run Delino DeShields for Prince Fielder at 2nd base, no other runners on; DeShields scored on a single. DeShields would bat again in the 9th with the Rangers trailing and foul out to end the game.
May 2nd: 9th inning, tie game, pinch run Delino DeShields for Prince Fielder at 1st base with no other runners on; DeShields stranded at 1st base.
May 8th: 8th inning, Rangers trailing 5-0, pinch run Rougned Odor for Kyle Blanks at 1st base with runners at 2nd and 3rd; Odor stranded at 1st base.
May 10th: 8th inning, tie game, pinch run Delino DeShields for Prince Fielder at 1st base with a runner on 2nd; DeShields advanced to 2nd base before being forced out at 3rd base.
May 12th: 7th inning, tie game, pinch run Leonys Martin for Kyle Blanks at 1st base with a runner on 3rd; Martin stranded at 1st base. Martin replaced by pinch hitter Carlos Corporan in 10th inning; Corporan struck out.
May 12th: 9th inning, Rangers trailing 6-5, pinch run Jake Smolinski for Shin-Soo Choo at 1st base with no other runners on; Smolinski advanced to 2nd base on bunt and scored on base hit.
