It was 1994, and Ralph Avila was out of town again, as he so often was, scouting talent at Campo Las Palmas in Guerra, Dominican Republic. It was Ralph's vision that led the Dodgers to open the camp, and it paid off early and often, yielding Raul Mondesi, Ramon Martinez, and Ramon's little brother, Pedro, who would eventually be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Speaking of the Hall of Fame...
Raul saw something that summer in a 130-lb. infielder, something that would eventually see the Dodgers penalized a year's worth of activity in the Dominican Republic, as the minimum age for signing a contract is 16, and Adrian Beltre was 15 when Los Angeles hid that fact and signed him anyway.
Looking back, you have to think that the Dodgers would make that sacrifice again, knowing what we now all know: Adrian Beltre is going to be in the Hall of Fame.
It's silly that there is even any opposition in this discussion. Consider these facts:
- Advanced Stats: Let's look at the JAWS system. Among third basemen, Adrian Beltre ranks 6th all time, ahead of inductees Ron Santo, Brooks Robinson, and Paul Molitor. Of the other top ten third basemen, the only other non-HOF'ers are Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen, neither of whom are eligible yet. The highest-ranking eligible third baseman who isn't in the Hall? Edgar Martinez, primarily a DH. Do you prefer WAR over JAWS? Read the above paragraph and insert WAR wherever you see JAWS. The rankings are the same.
- Traditional Stats: Adrian Beltre is 5th All-Time among 3B in Home Runs, with 400. He will no doubt catch Darrell Evans (414) and it's possible, if a little improbable, that he will pass Chipper Jones for third at 468 before his career is over. He's also 5th in RBI and doubles (behind only Chipper Jones and HOF'ers) in both categories
- Comparison to other Hall of Fame inductees: How about this list? Adrian Beltre is one of only 6 players in Major League Baseball history with:
- 400+ HR
- 2,500+ hits
- 1,400+ RBI
- 530+ doubles
- 1,200+ Runs
- 100+ stolen bases
- Fewer than 1,500 strikeouts The other 5 players? Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Chipper Jones, Babe Ruth, and Carl Yastrzemski
- Defense: Well yeah. If you've been watching Beltre play at all since he arrived in Texas, you've seen more than enough evidence that he's a great defensive third baseman. But for those who rely on more advanced statistics, there is some murmuring that he is not a Hall of Famer based solely on defense, a la Ozzie Smith or perhaps Omar Vizquel. That's fair, but remember that we're having this conversation about the guy who put up the offensive numbers we discussed earlier. He's a fantastic defensive third baseman, one of the best ever, even if he's not Brooks Robinson, but one unassailable fact is that later this year, Adrian Beltre will pass Graig Nettles for 2nd-place all-time in games played at third base. While "staying in the lineup" does not a Hall of Famer make, it's certainly not a strike against him.
- Intangibles: It's impossible to measure leadership with statistics, and early in his career, fairly or not, Beltre began to gain a reputation as someone who only played hard when it was a contract year. Whether that was unfounded, or he has just matured, you'll be hard-pressed to find anyone more respected in any clubhouse anywhere than Adrian Beltre is in Arlington. Also, if PED usage is a factor that matters to you, despite starting his career in 1998, never once has Adrian Beltre been accused, or even implicated in Performance-Enhancing Drug usage. As far as anyone knows, he's done this completely clean.
- Post-Season Performance: This is the one category where naysayers have a firmer (though still somewhat flimsy) argument. Aside from one NLDS with the Dodgers in 2004, the only post-season experience of Beltre's career has come in 2011-2013 with the Rangers. He wasn't bad, but 22 strikeouts in 91 at-bats is pretty pedestrian (to be fair, 10 of those came in 27 ABs against a 2011 Detroit Tigers staff made up of Scherzer, Verlander, Fister, and Porcello). He did hit .300 in the World Series, but there are those who weigh a ring above everything else, and, well, I hope they enjoy their Nick Punto induction into the hall.
He belongs in the Hall.
It will happen, and anyone who says otherwise is employing the "Say Something Ridiculous So As To Garner Clicks And Ad Revenue" strategy that should be grounds for revocation of baseball (and internet) privileges.
I just hope that when that day comes, when Raul Avila (father and grandfather, respectively, of the Tigers' assistant GM and catcher) watches his protege walk to the podium, that he will be cheering a World Series champion as well. It's certainly a long-shot to happen here in Texas. But if a 130-lb 15-year-old from Guerra, Dominican Republic can make the Hall of Fame, then I'm okay holding on to my dreams a little longer.
If you think Adrian Beltre shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame, you can lose a debate to Levi Weaver about it on Twitter at @ThreeTwoEephus
