On July 31st, 2012 the Rangers made their biggest move of the year by trading for Chicago Cubs starter Ryan Dempster. They sent away low minor leaguers Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks, a cost that was seen as minimal for a perceived top of the rotation pitcher.
On that same day, Texas lost to the Los Angeles Angels 6-2 at home. Derek Holland gave up six runs over six plus innings, David Murphy had a two RBI double, and the final inning was pitched by a 21 year old lefty named Martin Perez. He gave up two hits, but nothing more.
Dempster never matched his Chicago magic in Arlington. Villanueva never made it above Triple A with the Cubs organization before heading to the Mexican League. Hendricks didn’t make his major league debut until 2014, but broke the door down culminating in a 2016 season of Cy Young caliber.
There’s reason to believe that Hendricks’ success could be a breakout year predictor from the pitcher who finished Texas’ game the day Hendricks was traded.
There are parallels in the careers of Perez and Hendricks. Consider that before last season, they made almost the same amount of career starts (Perez made 48 while Hendricks 45). They had a similar ground ball rate, and their WAR difference is evident but negligible. Then 2016 happened and while both pitchers had their best seasons ever, Hendricks was miles ahead of Perez. That said, as Perez enters his age 26 season (the same age Hendricks was during his banner year) he has the opportunity to mirror Chicago’s found money.
It won’t be easy, and it also won’t be totally within his control.
Perez and Hendricks both rely on their sinker as their primary pitch. Perez tends to throw his between 4-7 miles per hour harder than Hendricks, but uses it less efficiently. For example, Hendricks in 2016 threw his sinker for a strike 33% of the time. Perez only got a strike 23% of the time with his.
Hitters also put Hendricks’ sinker in play 6 percent less than Perez’s, 19 to 25. What’s even more remarkable is Hendricks’ posted a lower batting average, slugging percentage, and isolated power figure on his sinker than Perez, despite a BABIP that was 30 points higher (.305 for Hendricks, .335 for Perez).
For Perez to step forward means being more precise with his sinker. One way to do that is raising it. Last season, Perez threw almost 27% of his sinkers below the strike zone. By comparison, Hendricks hit the same area with his sinker only 13% of the time in 2016. This change should result in less balls, but more strikes and ground balls. Of course more balls in play does increase the potential for hits, but the risk is marginal.
Perez also needs to settle on a secondary pitch going forward. Last season he used five different pitches to various levels of success. His slider would be a good choice, as opposing hitters only hit .227 while slugging .307 against it last year. It was also Perez’s 4th most used pitch.
There’s an argument to be made that Perez should become a primarily sinker/slider pitcher, since his four seamer was atrocious last season. Batters posted a .317 average, .520 SLG, and .207 ISO on the pitch.
Hendricks used a two pitch model to great success, just with a changeup instead of a slider. His changeup held opponents to a .132 average and a .220 SLG in 2016. It was his go to weapon paired with his sinker; Perez would do well to imitate this approach with his own second best offering.
That said while Perez can and should improve the pitches he throws, who is behind the plate receiving them is just as important to his potential success.
Just as it was for Hendricks.
For this, we look to StatCorner and their Runs Above Average (RAA) stat. The higher the number, the more runs a catcher’s framing prevented. If you’re in the negative, you’re costing your pitchers runs. Last season, the Cubs had two catchers (Miguel Montero and David Ross) in the top ten of RAA, with the third (Wilson Contreras) mere decimal points out of the top 20. Montero in specific was outstanding at saving runs for his battery mates, posting a whopping 16.3 RAA. There’s no question that Hendricks’ banner year came in part due to his catchers being excellent defenders.
For Perez, his primary catcher next season will be Jonathan Lucroy. During his half season with Texas, Lucroy didn’t have the best impact with a -1.5 RAA. It’s at odds with the first half of his season in Milwaukee, where he posted a 5.5 RAA. There’s a decent case to be made that Lucroy, despite being a quick study, wasn’t at his best having to learn a new staff midseason. It’s safe to assume that with a full offseason and Spring Training, Lucroy will return to form. That helps Perez a lot, considering Robinson Chirinos last season posted a dismal -9.5 RAA.
Of course, there’s only but so much for which statistics and suggestions can account. For Perez to move up in the pitching pantheon, not only will he need to do all the physical things but the mental things also. There’s no number encapsulating the mental strength needed to handle the strenuous situations in which a starter can find themselves. The good news most players experience their primes around 26-27, which Perez is entering. Call it a perfect storm, but all of this happening at this juncture in Perez’s career could set him up for brilliance.
Almost six years ago, Texas traded away a player who would unexpectedly turn out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. The good news is, in a player they kept and developed, they might not miss him that much after all.
Do you think Martin Perez is ready to breakout? Share your thoughts with Samuel on Twitter @thesamuelhale.
