TEXAS, USA — The concept of Texas seceding from the United States has been around since statehood.
But this time, it feels a bit different.
More than 150 Republican candidates and officeholders signed the “Take Texas Back” pledge promising to support legislation that would push Texas to secede from the union under certain conditions.
Eric McDaniel, a professor in the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin, says while there’s always been an antagonistic relationship between the federal government and Texas, the “Texit” movement is getting a bit more organized.
“I think with the increased level of populism that’s swept over the nation that we see a more formal attempt to think about ways of Texas seceding from the United States,” McDaniel told us on Y’all-itics.
As a government professor, McDaniel knows talking about secession is one thing, but actually making the move as a government is something altogether different, and much more difficult and complex.
“About a third of Texas’ budget comes from the federal government, so plan on taxes going up,” McDaniel said.
And the professor says that tax increase would be just the start.
Texas has no income tax, but he says that would become necessary to build up infrastructure.
Or look at all of the states fighting over water rights. If Texas were to secede, then the federal government would have no reason to intervene on its behalf.
What about the move away from fossil fuels? If Texas no longer has a seat at the table, leaving the rest of the country to shun oil, that would severely undercut the state’s economy.
If you want to see these difficulties firsthand, particularly after Texas would become another country, McDaniel says look at Brexit and the difficulties facing the United Kingdom after it pulled out of the European Union to go it alone.
Britain, for instance, is still trying to determine some tax structures for certain imports and exports, complexities ironed out by the E.U. before. And British exports worth billions now face E.U. tariffs despite a “tariff-free” deal negotiated between the two governments.
“But if this does happen, because this kind of throws everything kind of crazy, expect a mass exodus from the state. And so, a lot of the gains the state has made will go away very quickly when it decides to become its own independent nation,” McDaniel explained.
But the movement can’t be ignored, because when you look at the folks who signed the “Take Texas Back” pledge, seven of the candidates won their primary on Super Tuesday and five others are in runoffs, including the race involving the Speaker of the Texas House.
While 11 candidates who signed the pledge were defeated in the primary, the list still includes two candidates trying to replace the chair of the Republican Party of Texas, current Secretary of Agriculture Sid Miller and two incumbent state Representatives.
And they come from all walks of life, so it isn’t limited to a single demographic, something that’s not surprising to McDaniel.
“Given the nature of Texas, and how Texas is changing, this would not be able to advance if it was not a diverse crowd,” he said.