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How will Texans vote in the 2024 election? New poll sheds some light

A new study from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University is giving insights into how the state will vote for president and the U.S. Senate in Nov.

HOUSTON — A new survey from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan - Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs sheds some light on how Texans feel about the general election.

The survey was initially conducted between June 20 and July 1, before President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race on July 21. Surveyors conducted a second wave from August 5 to August 16.

At the time of the initial survey, it suggested that 49% of likely voters in Texas would vote for Donald Trump for president -- compared to 40% who said they would vote for Biden. Five percent of likely voters in Texas would vote for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 4% said they weren't sure who they would vote for.

The more recent survey shows a narrower margin. The survey suggested 49.5% of likely voters in the state would vote for Trump while 44.6% of likely voters would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. Only 2% of likely voters said they intend to vote for RFK, Jr.

"Back in June, Biden was down by nine points. Now, in August, Harris is down by five points. Now, this does occur at a time when Harris is receiving very positive media coverage nationwide. So we may be at a high point for the vice president," Political science expert Mark Jones told us. "But it certainly is a more competitive race in Texas than it was a little over a month ago."   

The study broke down the data even more. 

Among men, 56% of likely Texas voters would vote for Trump and only 38% intend to vote for Harris. Among women, Harris has the lead. Fifty percent of Texas women likely to vote would vote for Harris while 44% intend to vote for Trump.

Younger voters tend to lean more towards Harris, according to the survey, with 55% of Generation Z likely voters intending to vote for the vice president compared to 38% who intend to vote for Trump. The study said that when Biden was a candidate, only 39% of Gen Z likely Texas voters intended to vote for him.

According to the study, Latino Texans are split between the candidates. Of those surveyed, 47% of Latino likely Texas voters said they intend to vote for Trump compared to 46% who said they'd voted for Harris.

Moving to the U.S. Senate race, the survey suggests a tight race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred. Of those who took the survey, 46.6% of likely Texas voters said they intend to vote for Cruz, compared to 44.5% who said they'd vote for Allred. Just over 6% said they weren't sure who they would vote for.

Men are more likely to vote for Cruz, according to the survey. Fifty-two percent of men likely Texas voters said they'd vote for Cruz, compared to 39% who said they intend to vote for Allred. Allred has a lead with women voters, though. Forty-nine percent of women likely Texas voters said they'd vote for Allred, compared to 42% who intend to vote for Cruz.

The survey also showed that most Texans support school vouchers.

For more details on the survey, click here.

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