TEXAS, USA — The election grudge match between Texas Republicans is over.
And Travis County Republican party chair and GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak says he can’t remember a Republican primary or primary runoff as bruising as 2024’s.
“Most divisive I can remember. Most money spent. Most controversy. The largest number of attacks,” Mackowiak told us on Inside Texas Politics.
A record 15 Republican incumbents were ousted during both rounds of the primary, leading Gov. Greg Abbott to proclaim he now has enough votes to pass his signature initiative: vouchers.
“So, he’s in a position now to almost be absolutely certain he’s going to get his school choice bill through the House and the Senate for the first time in Texas history,” said Mackowiak.
But the top target of far-right Republicans in Texas narrowly survived his race, Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan.
The Speaker has come under constant fire for not passing school vouchers during the last legislative session, as well as a handful of other conservative priorities.
And the far right flank of the party has continuously criticized Phelan’s decision to continue the longstanding Texas House tradition of assigning committee chairs to both parties.
Immediately after winning his primary runoff, Phelan said he would run for Speaker for a third time.
But Attorney General Ken Paxton has already threatened any House Republican who supports Phelan’s bid, so the hard feelings between Texas Republicans won’t be evaporating anytime soon.
Mackowiak thinks Phelan does have a chance to succeed, a change in his thinking from just two weeks ago.
But to be successful, Mackowiak says, he will need a large coalition that will almost certainly have to include a large number of Democrats.
“And that would create a lot of problems with the Senate, probably with the Governor. Certainly, problems related to how many Democratic chairs you’d have. Whether school choice would pass,” Mackowiak said.
Mackowiak also recently lost his own last-second bid to become chair of the Republican Party of Texas.
He says his concern level is “pretty high” for the state party.
While Mackowiak doesn’t think the disarray he sees will impact former President Donald Trump in Texas, it could play a role in the race for U.S. Senate between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, which several recent polls have shown within the margin of error.
“Where RPT (Republican Party of Texas) comes in, is do they have the money to do an early vote-by-mail program? That’s huge. I don’t think they’re going to have the money to do that,” Mackowiak said. “Are they able to do the cut-rate postage program that all of our candidates rely on? There’s a big question as to whether they can do that. These things are going to affect the margin.”