DALLAS — Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak says the big race everyone will watch on May 24 is the GOP runoff for attorney general between incumbent Ken Paxton and Land Commissioner George P. Bush.
Mackowiak fully expects Paxton to be re-nominated.
“I think you might see a 60/40 margin ultimately,” Mackowiak said on Inside Texas Politics. “You have to remember our statewide primary runoffs are a subset of a subset. It really is, kind of, the base of the base.”
The Republican strategist and chairman of the Travis County Republican Party says Bush has been trying to make the race about Paxton’s ethics.
While Paxton is seeking a third term, controversy has followed him the entire time he’s held the office.
Among other controversies, he still faces a securities fraud indictment, an FBI investigation into claims he abused his office and a lawsuit from the state bar for his role in attempting to block the 2020 election results.
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Mackowiak says in the GOP primary and subsequent runoff, those ethics arguments aren’t sticking. But he’s convinced Democrats will try the same line of attack in November if Paxton is the nominee.
“I think Democrats want to run against Paxton,” he said. “I think that they believe that they can make the race competitive.”
Mackowiak says 2022 is looking like another solidly Republican year in Texas.
So the question, he says, is whether Democrats will have the money to make any noise. And come November, he thinks the attorney general race will be the only competitive battle in the general election.
“The question’s going to be can they raise enough money to give themselves a chance to defeat a Republican incumbent in a Republican year,” said Mackowiak.