DALLAS — There are a few key differences between the frigid temperatures that will descend upon Texas this week and the winter storm that plunged the state into darkness 22 months ago.
“This is going to be a very cold event, but it’s not going to be as long or as wet and damp and icy, so there are less things that can take down a power plant or grind equipment to a halt,” said Alison Silverstein, a former advisor to the Public Utility Commission of Texas who is now an independent energy consultant.
WFAA asked her if Texans should be concerned.
“I don’t think so,” she said.
The entire state was under a winter storm warning in 2021.
Many parts of Texas stayed well below 32 degrees for days on end.
The current forecast predicts sub-freezing temperatures as far south as the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning, but temperatures will rebound by Saturday.
Another difference is the high wind forecast for West Texas, which should supply a significant amount of power.
Silverstein also said equipment has improved since Winter Storm Uri.
All of the power plants that generate electricity for grid operator ERCOT have been winterized, Silverstein said, which means they should be able to operate at the temperatures in the current forecast.
ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas, on the job for two and a half months, told his board of directors Tuesday that 200 generating facilities have been inspected to ensure they comply with weatherization guidelines.
Vegas said the inspections are “going well.”
He said ERCOT predicts demand to reach a peak of about 70,000 megawatts Friday morning – higher than the peak the agency had forecast for this winter – but he said ERCOT will more than meet that demand.
He predicts a capacity of about 90,000 megawatts.
“So we continue to expect adequate supply with reserves for the upcoming cold weather conditions,” Vegas said.
The only unknown, Silverstein said, is natural gas.
“The railroad commission has adopted rules that points along the gas delivery chain should be winterized, but most of us don’t know what those points are,” Silverstein said. “We don’t know if they’ve adequately met the winterization requirements. And the railroad commission has set up opportunities for some of these assets to not have to qualify.”
In 2021, gas pipelines froze, crippling generation at many power plants.
Having little to no precipitation in the forecast should help, Silverstein said, because ice can wreak havoc on equipment in ways that wind or cold alone cannot.
It also means crews should have an easier time getting to locations to perform repairs should anything break.
Silverstein’s biggest worry is that with the high cost of energy, people might turn their thermostats down too low to stay safe.
“Nobody has done anything useful about energy efficiency, so Texas homes are just as poorly insulated today as they were a year and a half ago,” she said.
“That means many people are going to have a couple of days of very high electric bills and very uncomfortable cold weather because of poor insulation.”