DALLAS — Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, is polling within 5 points of incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, suggesting a competitive campaign in what will be the most watched race in Texas this November.
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation released a survey on Tuesday morning showing Cruz earning 46 percent of support to Allred's 41 percent.
“Senator Cruz is significantly underperforming Donald Trump in all major voter categories around the state,” said TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba. “Conversely, Allred continues to over perform the support received by President Biden in Texas.”
Financially, Allred has also kept up with Cruz in fundraising, with both raising more than $9 million in the first quarter of 2024.
The single-digit race, within the +/- 2.45 margin of error, is especially significant considering Cruz is running for his third term in Texas this fall and Allred isn't widely known outside of his congressional district in Dallas.
But the competitiveness of the senate race becomes even clearer when compared against the presidential race in Texas.
In the same TxHPF survey, Donald Trump polls 12 points ahead of Joe Biden in Texas. Trump scored 46 percent of support in Texas right now compared to Biden at 34 percent in the poll.
Nine percent of likely voters said they intended to support Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Despite four criminal cases against him, Trump has widened his support over Biden in Texas, the largest Republican state in the country. In the 2020 election, Trump won this state by a six-point margin, earning 52 percent of votes to Biden’s 46 percent.
“While today a Trump victory over Biden in Texas looks to be a foregone conclusion, Cruz is facing a much more competitive challenge from Allred -- a race that is certain to garner national attention as one of only two contests where Democrats have any hope of flipping a Republican-held seat as they attempt to retain control of the U.S. Senate,” said Dr. Mark P. Jones, the TxHPF Chief Information and Analytics Officer.
The poll's presidential race findings also reveal a good deal about Texas Hispanic voters' preferences, as more Hispanics here said they planned to vote for Trump than Biden.
“Democrats can no longer assume that they will automatically receive an overwhelming majority of the Hispanic vote,” said former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors. “While Democrats continue to see strengthening electoral support resulting from urbanization and with more progressive voters moving to Texas from other parts of the country, the Hispanic vote is clearly in play. Both political parties must vie for the vote of Hispanics. The party that comes out on top in the coming battles will hold political power in Texas for a generation.”
Trump leads Biden with Latinos 41 percent to 37 percent in the new poll. The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation said Trump’s lead with Hispanics is due in part to his advantage among Hispanic Born-Again Christians (61 percent vs. 18 percent) and among Hispanics without a four-year college degree (43 percent vs. 32 percent).
“Over the most recent election cycles, Texas Hispanics have shown a growing willingness to consider, and ultimately vote for, Republican candidates, especially at the Presidential level,” Villalba explained. “This, however, is the first time we have seen a Republican statewide candidate attract a majority of Texas likely Hispanic voters. Trump’s appeal to Hispanic evangelicals and men has helped him cobble together a level of support from Hispanics not seen since George W. Bush.”
Digging deeper into the numbers is another revelation: Despite the overturning of Roe vs. Wade at the U.S. Supreme Court, Trump holds a 10-point lead over Biden among women (44 percent to 34 percent).
As always, keep in mind that surveys are only a snapshot in time of how a sampling of voters feels about a political race or issue. The TxHPF poll was conducted between April 5 and April 10 of 1,600 likely voters in Texas. Its margin of error of 2.45 percent.