DALLAS — It’s perhaps worth keeping in mind that the last series of the first half of the 2024 season doesn’t really have much up for grabs. Yes, it’s an opportunity for the Texas Rangers to ride into the All-Star break with their recent string of solid baseball intact. They will have the opportunity to gain ground on the team immediately ahead of them in the American League West. And they can even show the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners that they’re not going to go away easily.
But ultimately for the Rangers, with Texas trailing Houston by five games, they’ll enter this series in third place and they’ll exit this series in third place, regardless of how the wins and losses fall. Texas is enjoying some momentum heading into this series and would love to exit the season’s first half on a high note, but to do so, they’ll once again be tasked with taking down their rivals from down south.
Texas Rangers (44-49, 3rd Place AL West, 7.0 GB) @ Houston Astros (49-44, 2nd Place AL West, 2.0 GB)
Previously, for Houston…
Houston is enjoying some positive momentum of their own, ushering out the Miami Marlins after sweeping them in convincing fashion this week. It was a series in which the starting pitching shined for Houston.
Ronel Blanco, who was not included on the AL All-Star roster, set the tone in the opener, while Framber Valdez finished his last start of the first half with a 10-strikeout performance. Jake Bloss, in his second ever Major League start and first since coming off the injured list, held the Marlins to two runs in four innings.
Valdez pitching on Wednesday means Texas won’t see him in this weekend set. Houston using five relievers in the finale against Miami also means that the Astros might be a bit short handed out of the bullpen to open against the Rangers.
But being short handed hasn’t stopped the Astros over the last couple of months. It’s been fairly well documented down in Houston, but the team is without Lance McCullers, Jr., Kendall Graveman, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy and, more recently, Justin Verlander.
The gaps in the pitching staff led to a disastrous start with the Astros going 10-19 in March/April and falling to the basement of the AL West. Following that, however, Houston has played winning baseball, going 15-14 in May and roaring through June at 17-8, which allowed them to overtake the slumping Rangers and sneak into second place behind the Mariners.
It’s been hitting and hitting to contact that have gotten the Astros to where they are. They lead all of baseball in batting average, and no team strikes out less. Slugging and scoring runs is a good thing for a team whose starting pitching is in the bottom third of the league in ERA. Reliever-wise, the Astros have been able to ride the backs of Bryan Abreu and Tayler Scott, as big offseason free agent acquisition Josh Hader has an ERA above 4.00 despite 16 saves.
What to watch for
Game 94, 7:10 PM CT - LHP Andrew Heaney (3-9, 3.80 ERA) vs. RHP Hunter Brown (6-6, 4.48 ERA)
Game 95, 3:10 PM CT - RHP Nathan Eovaldi (6-3, 3.10 ERA) vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti (4-7, 5.96 ERA)
Game 96, 1:10 PM CT - TBD vs. RHP Ronel Blanco (9-3, 2.53 ERA)
The Rangers will see righties Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blanco to finish the first half. Brown, who turned around his season and after having a very solid June and first game of July, got rocked in his last appearance. Against Minnesota, Brown made it through six innings, but gave up 12 hits and seven runs in the process. Brown also didn’t fare so well against Texas back in April, either, giving up five runs on eight hits in three innings pitched.
Arrighetti, who has not enjoyed a very smooth to the big leagues so far this season, wound up having a minimally successful outing against the Twins last time out. He gave up just two runs in five innings pitched, scattering seven hits. The rookie righty missed the Rangers both times that the two teams played against each other earlier this year.
Blanco, however, faced the Rangers both times when the teams played in back-to-back weekend series in April, shutting Texas out over six innings the first time and giving up just two runs in the series in Houston.
The Rangers will send out Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi in this series and then could go a couple of different ways in the first half finale. Heaney, who hasn’t given up more than three runs in a month’s time, got a no-decision last time out, but held the pesky Tampa Bay Rays to just three hits over 5 ⅓ innings.
The lefty was mired in his worst stretch of the season during two starts against Houston where he allowed six runs in the first encounter but held the Astros to just two runs in his second outing against Houston this year.
Eovaldi, meanwhile, got shelled for five runs in six innings in his last start against Houston back in April. The Texas ace has enjoyed a couple of nice outings in July, allowing just two runs in seven innings against Tampa Bay in his last start.
The finale would be Jon Gray’s spot, but the righty gave up three runs in five innings in Anaheim to continue a string of subpar efforts from Gray in the last few weeks. Texas could opt to start Max Scherzer on normal rest with the day off on Thursday or they might utilize swingman Jose Urena as a spot starter again to give Gray some additional rest leading into the break.
Texas can close the gap against Houston, but they can’t overtake them. That’s important as the Rangers grow nearer to the 100-game mark and the stretch run right around the corner. First up, however, will see MLB’s best congregate in Arlington after the Rangers and Astros clash for a final time in the season’s first half.
Do you think the Rangers will end the first half with a series win in Houston? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
