DALLAS — Uncomfortable with current energy forecasts, Texas's power grid manager is urgently looking for electricity capacity that can become available this winter.
If nothing changes, ERCOT estimates there is a 20 percent chance the power grid would enter emergency conditions during an arctic blast like December 2022's winter storm Elliott. Under the same scenario, there is a roughly 16 percent chance conditions force rolling outages.
"We have a potential problem this winter because the market has not provided the level of dispatchable resources that Texas needs," ERCOT board vice chair Bill Flores said during Tuesday's meeting. Dispatchable resources, such as fuel-fired or nuclear plants, can be turned on or off as needed.
During the winter, Texans typically demand most electricity around 8 a.m. The sun is still rising at that time, meaning solar panels cannot bail out the power grid during cold weather like they did so many times in the summer.
"We don't get the benefit of what's been the fastest growing resources on the ERCOT grid, which is solar energy resources, during the winter peaks," ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said.
To mitigate the risk for outages, ERCOT has asked market participants to find another 3 gigawatts of power. This additional capacity could come in the form of new generation or demand reduction.
In particular, ERCOT has asked power generators to consider restarting plants that are retired, including some polluters that have been offline for years. Board members acknowledged some mothballed plants would not be able to restart by the winter, though.
The grid operator estimates adding 3 gigawatts would reduce the chances of an energy emergency during an Elliott-like event to 10 percent, odds federal regulators consider low.
Options for demand reduction are less clear, though it's likely the state will indirectly pay more Texans to cut electricity usage this winter under the program.
ERCOT will begin approving proposals for additional capacity in November. It's not clear how much the push will cost.