DALLAS — Economic data suggests that inflation in Texas and the U.S. is slowing from its breakneck pace of the last several years. But anecdotal evidence of the damage it has already done can be found at your local mom-and-pop restaurant.
"I've been excited, always, since day one," said Jose Luis Rodriguez, chef and owner of Mixtitos Kitchen in east Dallas. After years of waiting tables for other employers, he finally opened his own restaurant in July of 2022, featuring a fusion of dishes from his native Mexico and a blend of cuisine from his wife's Mexican/Japanese heritage.
But now all these days later, he admits the family restaurant is struggling.
"The hope is still there and it's never gonna go," he said. "But at the same time the economy is not on the same level."
His restaurant at Samuell Boulevard and Grand Avenue in East Dallas, opened as inflation soared nationwide. The USDA reports a 5% increase in food prices in just the last year. The National Restaurant Association tracked a 25% increase in food prices between 2020 and 2024.
"This is the worst," said Fernando Barrera, owner of the Latin Deli on Abrams Road, which survived the pandemic because of the ability to offer to-go orders. His restaurant has been open for nearly 12 years. But he says he is struggling with the current economic climate too.
"Yes, we are open," Barrera said. "The restaurant, just to maintain it is open. But we are not doing any profit."
"It's been a struggle," admitted Corey Mobley, executive director of the Greater Dallas Chapter of the Texas Restaurant Association. He says credit card fees charged to restaurant owners are also up as much as 20% year over year. And he says that smaller, newer restaurants can only raise their prices so much.
"You can't price yourself out, right? Once you hit a certain threshold on pricing, like you can't go any higher, or you will price yourself out, people just won't come," Mobley said.
"Price increases do effect everyone across the entire board. I think everyone's taken a ride through this wave. But I think we're headed in the right direction," he said of evidence of a slowly improving inflation rate.
The failure rate for first-time restaurants has always been high, an estimated 30% do not survive their first year, according to the National Restaurant Association. The economy of the last few years, Jose Luis Rodriguez said, is only making it all the more difficult for startups like his.
"And for the price point I'm barely making a profit to just keep the restaurant open because we have to invest more than we're getting back," he said.
For Mixtitos Kitchen, he says the next two months will prove critical, determining whether he can stay open at all, now with a half-dozen employees including his wife and adult children.
"My hope is that we can recover and keep going," he said.
"If customers don't support us, he's going to have to close," said his friend Fernando Barrera. "He's going to have to let his American dream go down. And that's what we don't want to do."
On his business cards, Fernando Barrera has this imprinted on the back: "Never give up on your dreams, nothing worthwhile comes easy, just think positive."
In his office at Mixtitos Kitchen, Jose Luis Rodriguez has a quote stenciled on the wall: "If your dreams don't scare you, they are too small." Today, even trying to survive historic inflation, he says those dreams are still alive.
"And it's only the power of the community," he said of the only help he believes he needs from diners willing to give his restaurant a try.
That's all he's asking for, he said -- help to keep struggling businesses, and their American dreams, alive.
"Restaurateurs are some of the most passionate people and we're notorious for putting everything and our heart and soul into our serving communities," added Mobley.