It’s too soon to know the costs and consequences of the coronavirus on the national, state and Dallas-Fort Worth economy, but North Texas won’t escape pain-free, a top economist said Thursday in Southlake.
The virus’ effects on the economy could be minimal or could stall global growth as companies take a wait-and-see attitude, putting projects, production and expansion on hold, Ray Perryman, president and CEO of Waco-based of The Perryman Group, told business leaders at a Southlake Chamber of Commerce luncheon.
“If it does ultimately affect global growth in a big way and a sustained way, you will start to see some pretty big impacts from it,” he said. “You’re sitting here right next to DFW Airport, so you’re very much a part of the international economy. The cargo and the people that move in and out of DFW Airport are a huge part of what happens around the world, and if you start compromising that, you start seeing the ripple effects fairly quickly.”
People and businesses are already seeing effects of the virus as the stock market has taken a hit, Perryman said.
Travel into and out of affected regions has halted. Airlines have stopped flights and are losing millions of dollars, and shipping is also down significantly, he said. Major international conferences have been canceled.
Workers in China are dealing with quarantines, and many factories have closed, Perryman added. Texas and U.S. businesses will experience bottlenecks in production after China shuts down plants, he said.
“A lot of the components that we use for things that we make here are made in China,” Perryman said. “When their factories start shutting down and it’s hard to get things in and out of their ports, we start seeing that bottleneck very, very quickly.”
Coronavirus aside, Perryman said he doesn’t see indicators of a U.S. recession this year. He also doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to make any big moves on interest rates in upcoming months.
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