If current social distancing and prevention measures remain the same, the number of new COVID-19 infections in Dallas and Tarrant counties will increase, according to a UT Southwestern Medical Center report.
The medical center released a model of data as of Sept. 24 - 25 based on real patient data received from Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties. It shows cases and hospitalizations are already on the rise in Dallas and Tarrant counties.
Hospitalizations and the number of patients in the ICU are projected to increase in Dallas and Tarrant counties over the next two weeks, the report says.
"To ensure healthcare capacity remains available, the community’s continued compliance with physical distancing, masking, hand hygiene, and crowd management policies are needed," the report said.
Those measures are currently 63% effective at controlling the spread of the virus.
UT Southwestern also shows what the predicted new infections would be if measures were 61% effective, 65% effective and 68% effective. The report says there are limits to precisely determine compliance levels.
How contagious is COVID-19 in Dallas-Fort Worth now?
UT Southwestern showed a model with a line that represents how contagious the virus has been in Dallas and Tarrant counties over the last few weeks.
The Rt value, which represents contagiousness, has been hovering around 1 in Dallas and Tarrant counties since late August, the report says. The COVID-19 epidemic grows or persists if it's above 1. If it's below 1, the epidemic declines.
The Rt value decreased after the statewide face mask order was put into place in July.
Contagiousness depends on how well people wash their hands, social distance, wear masks, limit travel and clean high touch surfaces, the report said.
Hospital data from across North Texas shows hospitalizations have increased 10% compared to one and two weeks ago, the report said.
Hospitalizations are also expected to increase in Tarrant and Dallas counties.
UT Southwestern also showed that the current model predicted the past two weeks of hospitalizations very well in both counties.
Dallas County
Dallas County ranks second for counties in the state with the most active cases with 5,464, according to the state health department.
Total COVID-19 hospitalizations in Dallas County are predicted to slightly increase to 250 to 460 concurrent hospitalized cases by Oct. 9.
New COVID-19 infections are predicted to increase to approximately 520 per day by Oct. 9, the report says.
In the week ending on Sept. 19, 12% of COVID-19 tests performed at Dallas County hospitals were positive.
An increasing number of COVID-19 patients are predicted to be in the ICU, UT Southwestern said.
Tarrant County
Tarrant County ranks eighth for counties with the most active cases with 1,865, according to the state health department.
Hospitalizations in the county have increased since Sept. 21, the model shows.
Total COVID-19 hospitalizations in Tarrant County are predicted to increase by 250 to 520 concurrent hospitalized cases by Oct. 9.
New COVID-19 infections are predicted to increase to approximately 800 per day by Oct. 9, the report says.
