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Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. jumped almost 9% in trading on Thursday after the carrier disclosed its profit and revenue for the fourth quarter will end up being significantly higher than originally expected after a strong holiday travel season.
Fort Worth-based American expects adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter to be between $1.12 per share and $1.17 per share, according to a filing with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Previously, American forecasted earnings of 50 cents per share and 70 cents per share.
American expects revenue for the fourth quarter to be between $13.1 billion and $13.2 billion, up 16% to 17% compared to the prior-year period. Previously, the company expected revenue to increase from 11% to 13%. The projected increase in revenue came as American flew a schedule with 6% less capacity than the fourth quarter of 2019, near the midpoint of its prior guidance.
Unit revenue, or total revenue per available seat mile, is expected to be up approximately 24% versus the fourth quarter of 2019, higher than the previous guidance of 18% to 20%. Unit costs, excluding fuel and other special items, are expected to be up 10%.
American shares (Nasdaq: AAL) were up almost 9% to $16.70 as of mid-day trading on Thursday, reaching their highest point since May 2022.
The latest projections from American come after a holiday travel period that saw a winter storm put stress on the entire airline industry. However, American’s performance contrasts significantly from that of Southwest Airlines Co. Dallas-based Southwest canceled more than 16,000 flights during the period amid an operations meltdown. Southwest (NYSE: LUV) expects to report a loss in the fourth quarter and disclosed the chaos might cost the company as much as $825 million.
From Dec. 16 through Jan. 2, American served nearly 10.2 million customers on more than 90,000 flights, according to a memo by Chief Operating Officer David Seymour to employees. According to flight data tracker Cirium, American’s schedule was the largest of all U.S. carriers during the period and 31% more than that of United Airlines, the next-biggest carrier.
Seymour said that American’s completion factor outperformed was the highest of any U.S. carrier. The company also had the best on-time departure performance and ranked second for on-time arrivals, he said.
“The holiday travel season was unlike one we’ve seen before,” Seymour wrote. “It was bookended by Winter Storm Elliott and an Air Traffic Control issue in Florida and filled with challenging operating conditions along the way. It was a test for the entire industry and one I’m proud to say American handled exceptionally well.”
American’s updated revenue and profit forecast far exceeds what Wall Street analysts had expected. Analysts expected earnings of 60 cents per share and revenue of $12.7 billion.
“While we previously expected relative upside at American given less exposure to negative impacts from Winter Storm Elliott, the update came in well ahead of our expectations driven by a better top line with capacity coming in at the mid-point of the prior guide,” said Savanthi Syth, an analyst at Raymond James, in a note to investors. “Notably, American’s prior [fourth quarter] revenue guide did not seem to embed conservatism relative to U.S. airline peers.”
Helane Becker, an analyst at Cowen, said in a note she assumes American picked up business from Southwest.
“Our throughput estimates indicate American saw outsized passenger growth heading into the year-end that may have come from displaced Southwest customers,” Becker said. “The Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte-Douglas hubs performed particularly well in December.”
In addition to improved profitability, American, which will report its financial results for the fourth quarter on Jan. 26, also expects to have ended the year with an improved balance sheet. According to American’s filing, the company ended 2022 with approximately $12 billion in total available liquidity, comprised of cash and short-term investments plus undrawn capacity under revolving and other credit facilities.
According to the filing, American has also achieved more than half of its goal to reduce total debt by $15 billion by the end of 2025, with total debt down more than $7.5 billion in the first 18 months of the reduction program. The airline repaid a $1.18 billion term loan backed by its slots at New York LaGuardia and Washington Reagan National Airport in December, even though it was not due for another year. The payment was unexpected after then-Chief Financial Officer Derek Kerr said in October that American would only repay roughly $540 million in debt during the fourth quarter.