DALLAS — This story was originally published by our content partners at the Dallas Business Journal. Read the original version here.
Traffic numbers and toll revenues are expected to rise significantly as the population in Dallas–Fort Worth area grows, according to a study commissioned by the North Texas Tollway Authority. Annual toll revenue for the NTAA system will likely more than double over the next 20 years, according to the report.
Annual toll revenue for the NTAA system is estimated to be $1.19 billion in 2024. In five years, that revenue is expected to be $1.52 billion; in 10 years $1.9 billion; and in 20 years $2.8 billion.
The NTTA System includes eight toll roads: the Dallas North Tollway, President George Bush Turnpike, Sam Rayburn Tollway, Chisholm Trail Parkway, Addison Airport toll tunnel, Mountain Creek Lake Bridge, Lewisville Lake toll bridge and the 360 tollway.
The NTTA commissioned engineering consultant CDM Smith to compile a comprehensive traffic and toll revenue study, which was completed this month. The report included a system-wide review of transactions and toll revenue, traffic data collection, independent socioeconomic forecasts, review of the latest transpiration improvement plan, travel demand model updates and development of long-term traffic and toll revenue estimates for the NTTA System.
The purpose of the study is to develop traffic and forecasts for the NTTA System. The growth in revenue is expected to help NTTA cover its expenses and capital plans, said Michael Rey, media relations manager for the authority.
“NTTA is pleased that our network of roads continues to provide mobility for our customers,” he said. “The modest growth projected by the independent T&R consultants ensures we can fulfill our over $9 billion debt obligations to our bondholders.”
About a fourth of NTTA’s annual revenues cover operations and maintenance. More than half of the revenue goes toward debt services, and 22% is spent on future projects.
The 2024-2028 NTTA capital plan calls for the organization to spend $916 million to increase traffic capacity, $364 million on technology enhancements, $632 million on improvements to system safety, roads and facilities, and $61 million on interchange and ramp improvements.
“As one of the more attractive economic centers in the country, transportation infrastructure will be critically important and the toll rates strengthen our ability to fund necessary maintenance and expansion,” Rey said.
According to the U.S. Census, the DFW Metroplex is the fourth largest in the nation, with a population of 7.7 million in 2020 that is projected to grow to 11.4 million by 2045. The growth represents a 48% increase in the North Texas population over the next 25 years.
DFW has one of the largest regional economies in Texas and is more populous than 37 states. The seven most populous counties in North Texas – Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Rockwell and Tarrant counties – are expected to see significant growth in the next 20 years, according to a handful of scenarios laid out in the report.
The total population of these counties will rise from just over 7 million in 2020 to between 8.5 million and 9.4 million in 2040, according to the report.
Texas is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S., according to the U.S. Census. The state added 4 million people between 2010 and 2020, an almost 16% increase in population.
Estimated annual revenue increases for the NTTA’s eight toll roads is broken down as follows:
- Dallas North Tollway: $346.6 million in revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $469.7 million by 2030 and $675.3 million by 2040
- President George Bush Turnpike: (excluding PGBT WE and PGBT EE): $301.5 million in revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $396.5 million by 2030 and $598.4 million by 2040
- PGBT WE: $75.5 million revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $98.8 million in 2030 and $154.1 million by 2040
- PGBT EE: $53.6 million revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $72.3 million by 2030 and $120.8 million by 2040
- Sam Rayburn Tollway: $272.9 million revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $355.6 million by 2030 and $546.8 million by 2040
- Chisholm Trail Parkway - $86.5 million revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $125.1 million and in 2030 and $203.1 million by 2040
- 360 tollway: $31.4 million revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $46.4 million in 2030 and $83.8 million in 2040
- Addison Airport toll tunnel, Mountain Creek Lake Bridge, Lewisville Lake toll bridge combined: $17.8 million revenue in 2024, expected to rise to $23.9 million in 2030 and $36.9 million in 2040
