DALLAS — Three months into the year and the Academy is finally ready to crown the winners from last year's movie season. Choosing to be last in line means all the guilds have already bestowed awards, including the Screen Actors Guild, along with the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, the Independent Spirit and so on.
So, if the Academy is wondering about waning interest, they can point to their own calendar. Winners by this point are almost foregone conclusions.
BEST PICTURE/BEST DIRECTOR
These winners don't always align, and that's a head scratcher. But this year, the two biggest prizes will almost certainly go to "Oppenheimer" and its yet-to-win director, Christopher Nolan (That's hard to believe!) The Academy filled out the complete slate of ten nominees for Best Picture, including my favorite of the year, "Past Lives." I'll have to be content with its wins for Picture and Director at the Independent Spirit Awards. "Oppy" does lead all nominees with 13. The most Oscars ever awarded to a single movie? "Titanic" with 11. Don't look for that record to sink.
Of note, though, in this Women's History Month: this year is the first time three Best Picture nominees are directed by women: "Barbie," "Anatomy of a Fall" and "Past Lives."
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy as the haunted creator of the atomic bomb in "Oppenheimer," has swept major awards this season, so I can't see any way he's beaten. Bradley Cooper, who deftly directed himself in "Maestro" is likely to continue his winless streak across categories including Best Actor, now at 0-9. That's likely to climb to 0-12, and that's a shame.
BEST ACTRESS
This is the only real competitive category, with the win likely to go to Lily Gladstone for "Killers of the Flower Moon." She's also the first Native American woman ever up for that award and has been using the season to shine a gracious light on her indigenous culture. I interviewed her twice about the film and love her.
Emma Stone is nipping at her heels for her uninhibited performance in "Poor Things." Each won a Golden Globe, Stone won the BAFTA, Gladstone, the SAG Award. I'm going to give the edge to Gladstone. Stone has a statue for "LaLa Land," and the Academy will want to spread the wealth and honor Martin Scorsese's epic film in some way. (Scorsese, nominated for the 10th time.) By the way, Sandra Huler is up for Best Actress, and stars in two "Best Picture" nominees, "Anatomy of a Fall" and "The Zone of Interest."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR/ ACTRESS
Like Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer's" Robert Downey Jr. has run the tables in the supporting actor category. So has Da'Vine Joy Randolph for "The Holdovers." I expect nothing to change with the Oscars. If you want some trivia for your watch party, Robert DeNiro now holds the record for the longest time between an actor's first and current nomination at 49 years. His first nod was for "The Godfather Part II." This one is for "Flower Moon."
OTHER NOTES
Much has been said about snubbing director Greta Gerwig and star Margot Robbie, but "Barbie" has eight nominations. Gerwig could win for her screenplay, Robbie, as one of the film's producer. The pink powerhouse is sure to win Best Song, with Billie Eilish's depressing ballad "What Was I Made For?" duking it out with Mark Ronson's "I'm Just Ken." And, yes, Ryan Gosling will perform.
Don't be surprised, though, if "Poor Things" bests "Barbie" for Production Design and Costumes.
Jimmy Kimmel returns to host for the fourth time. Expect some 'Kenergy' from him. After all, he's "Just Jim!" His promo features a trip to "Barbieland" and advice from Weird Barbie, herself. Between moving up the program by an hour and Daylight Saving Time kicking in, Kimmel is worried the audience will miss the start of the show. Let's not let him down. And Academy, why not move up the awards by two or three months next time?
The Oscars air at 6 p.m. Sunday right here on WFAA. My reaction right here on Monday. Happy watching!
